海绵城市建设理念与方法及高性能模拟技术的应用-学术报告.pdfVIP

海绵城市建设理念与方法及高性能 模拟技术的应用 侯 精 明 2016/09/24 1 海绵城市理念提出的背景 我国城市建成区迅速扩大，1981年为7438平方公里，2000年为22439平方 公里，2011年已达43000平方公里，平均每年增加1800平方公里，大致相当 于增加一个上海市建成区面积。 1981－2011年全国历年城市建成区面积（平方公里） 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 快速城市化 数据来源：中国水利水电科学研究院王建华 市区下垫面变化 气候变化：水灾害呈加剧的趋势  It is found that the 1.5 km model shows increases in hourly rainfall intensities in winter, consistent with projections from a coarser 12 km resolution model and previous studies at the daily timescale.  However, the 1.5 km model also shows a future intensification of short- duration rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding. 气候变化，极端降雨  The Surface Heats Up Measurements show F i g u r e ： P e r c e n t i l e s o f that global average temperature has risen by precipitation intensity on a 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years, logarithmic scale as a function of with most of that happening in the last three temperature : Observed 1 h decades. precipitation intensity I 1 h. (Lenderink and Van Meijgaard 2 0 0 8 : I n c r e a s e i n h o u r l y precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature change