硅谷银行-2022年第三季度全球基金银行业务展望（英）.pdf

Emerging trends and insights for the private equity and venture capital ecosystems Q3 2022 Preparing for a Different Environment Since our last report, we have entered a new phase of the market cycle. After an unprecedented two years for the private equity (PE) ecosystem, on the back of an already historic decade, the market landscape has shifted. The pressures of the war in Ukraine, growing tensions over Taiwan, elevated inflation, higher interest rates, weaker macroeconomic conditions and an ever- evolving COVID-19 pandemic have weighed on markets. The US has been bouncing between bear market and correction territory since the start of the year and has had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The PE ecosystem is entering what is likely to be a period of recalibration — and potentially a more prolonged correction rather than a short-lived initial drop like the one that occurred at the onset of the pandemic. At face value, fundraising has had a strong first half and is on track to outpace last year’s figures, though this is buoyed by a few large funds that closed at the beginning of the year. Funds closed and fundraising by vintage year, however, show slowing momentum that tracks closer to 2018 and 2019. Investment pace has started to slow modestly as investors continue to assess the current situation. Yet while we expect some softness in the market, our proprietary data shows activity should remain healthy, and opportunities should continue to present themselves. Exit markets have dried up, which will put pressure on liquidity and dampen distributions to limited partners (LPs) — potentially causing trickle down effects on future fundraising dynamics and leading investors to search for liquidity from alternate financing sources. However, this has not pushed LPs away. In this report, we present key findings from our LP survey that demonstrate their continued commitment to the space. A bright spot amongst all the noise is that this env