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Trust the Experts? Relative Performance of Inflation
Expectations, 1946-2022
*
Tyler Goodspeed
Economics Working Paper 22120
HOOVER INSTITUTION
434 GALVEZ MALL
STANFORD UNIVERSITY
STANFORD, CA 94305-6010
October 2022
I study long-run series of individual and professional inflation forecasts from the University of
Michigan Survey of Consumers and Livingston Survey of professional economists. I find that the
average professional forecast generally outperforms the average consumer forecast. However, that
superior performance is attributable exclusively to periods of low and stable inflation. During
periods of high inflation and inflation regime change—both from low and stable to high inflation,
and from high inflation to disinflation—the average consumer forecast is more accurate and
rational (unbiased, with serially uncorrelated errors) and efficient (fully exploits available
information). I find
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