1991-2008年中国物流业生产函数的实证分析.pdf

尚文芳，等：1991- 2008 年中国物流业生产函数的实证分析 研究与探讨 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1005-152X.2010.16.001 1991- 2008 年中国物流业生产函数的实证分析 尚文芳，桂寿平 （华南理工大学 经济与贸易学院，广东 广州 510006） [摘 要]通过构造物流业生产函数，对物流业的投入与产出关系进行实证研究和量化分析，揭示1991- 2008 年间中国物流 业的各投入要素对其产出的影响和贡献，据此将1991 年以来物流发展分为三个阶段：初步发展阶段、快速稳定增长阶段和动荡 增长阶段，并比较各阶段的产出增长模式。认为，中国物流业发展还没有实现规模经济效益，投入产出还存在不平衡；物流产业的 振兴需要在未来继续提高物流信息化和标准化，引进和培养各个层次的物流专业人才。 [关键词]物流业；生产函数；投入；产出 [ 中图分类号]F252;F224.0 [文献标识码]A [文章编号] 1005- 152X（2010）16- 0001- 03 An Empirical Study on the Production Function of the Chinese Logistics Industry from 1991 to 2008 SHANGWen- fang, GUI Shou- ping (School ofEconomics Commerce, South China UniversityofTechnology, Guangzhou 510006, China) Abstract: Through formulating the production function of the logistics industry, the paper studies empirically and quantitatively the in- put- output relationship ofthe industry, uncovers the influence upon and contributions tothe output ofthe industryin China bythe different input factors fromthe year 1991 to2008, and, based on the data obtained, divides the period intostages of initial take- off, rapid and stable growth, and fluctuant development, with the growth patterns of the three compared. Based on the findings, the paper holds that the logistics industry of China has yet toreach economyofscale and is still faced with imbalance between input and out and the task ofconstructingthe logistics information and standards systemand introducingand traininglogistics personnel ofdifferent levels in order toinvigorate the industry. Keywords: logisitcs industry;production function;input ;output （2009）以GDP 和物流增加值作为被解释和解释变量进行回 1 引言