基于BP神经网络的四川省猪肉价格预测.pdf

摘要 长期以来，猪肉作为我国居民长期消费的肉类食品，在居民餐桌上有着极其 重要的地位。但在近几年里猪肉价格的波动越来越频繁、幅度越来越大，对我 国的猪肉市场造成了较大的影响。因此，掌握猪肉价格的波动规律并对其进行 准确的预测显得尤为重要。 本文从中国畜牧业信息网和四川省农业厅官网收集到了四川省自 2000 年 1 月到 2019 年 11 月的猪肉价格，对其分析后得出其存在季节性和约在三至四年 完成一个价格循环周期的波动规律。然后，使用 BP 神经网络和 ARMA 两种模型 对其进行预测，得出 BP 神经网络预测结果更为精准的结论。最后使用 BP 神经 网络模型对四川省未来猪肉价格进行预测，以期能够为猪肉市场生产管理者的 决策提供一定的支持。 关键字：猪肉价格预测；BP 神经网络模型；ARMA 模型 1 Abstract For a long time, pork, as the meat food consumed by Chinese residents for a long time, plays an important role in the vegetable basket. In recent years, the price of pork has shown a trend of more and more frequent fluctuations, which has a greater impact on the pork market in China. Therefore, it is very important to grasp the fluctuation law of pork price and forecast it accurately. In this paper, the pork prices in Sichuan Province from January 2000 to November 2019 are collected from China animal husbandry information network and the official website of Sichuan Provincial Department of agriculture. After analyzing the pork prices, we find that they are seasonal and have a price cycle in three to four years. Then, BP neural network and ARMA are used to predict it, and the conclusion that BP neural network prediction results are more accurate is obtained. Finally, the BP neural network model is used to predict the future pork price in Sichuan Province, which provides some support for the decision-making of the production managers in the pork market. Key words ：Prediction of pork price ；BP neural network ；ARMA model 1.绪论 1.1 研究背景 “猪粮安天下”，因猪肉是中国居民主要消费的肉类食品的缘故，其价格的 变化往往牵动着每个人的神经。在中国的肉类食品消费中猪肉占比超过 60%，食 品中占比超过 20%，可见，猪肉凭借在居民菜篮子中独一无二的地位，影响着每 一个人的消费需求。 但近年来猪肉的价格震荡剧烈，对其生产者和消费者的经济