临床预测模型.pptxVIP

汇 报 人：胡 靖指导老师：尹 平教授临床预测模型Clinical Prediction Models 01CPMs的基本概念 02 内 容CPMs的研究思路 03CONTENTSCPMs的应用 04总结部分 01CPMs的基本概念The study trend. 1.1What is clinical prediction model.Clinical prediction model is a mathematical equation that provides risk estimates for the presence (diagnosis) or future occurrence (prognosis) of a particular outcome for individual patients to support clinical decision-making. which becomes more and more important in the current era of personalized medicine. Other names: Risk prediction model, Predictive model, Prognostic (or Prediction) index or rule, and Risk score. 1.2Schematic representation of prediction modeling studies.often referred to as diagnostic test resultshours, weeks, months or years?either ill or healthy individuals 1.3Similarities between diagnostic and prognostic models.including:Type of outcome is often binary: either disease of interest present versus absent (in diagnosis) or the future occurrence of an event yes or no (in prognosis).The key interest is to generate the probability of the outcome being present or occurring for an individual, given the values of 2 or more predictors, with the purpose of informing patients and guiding clinical decision making.The same challenges as when developing a multivariable prediction model, such as selection of the predictors, model-building strategies, and handling of continuous predictors and the danger of overfitting.The same measures for assessing model performance. 1.3 02CPMs的研究思路如何系统化地进行CPMs的研究产出2014年在European Heart Journal（IF=23.425）发表了一个statistical tutorial，标题为Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation (PMID。提出7步构建模型以及ABCD法验证模型的总体思路。2015年在BMJ（IF=23.259）发表了TRIPOD statement,标题为Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the?TRIPOD?statement (PMID:。指出对于疾病诊断和预后的预测模型需要有统一的报告规范，即TRIPOD声明。 2.1 2.1TRIPOD声明（原文）的获取链接：/reporting-guidelines/tripod-statement