通胀与失业通论Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment.pdf

1. Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment The Phillips Curve • In 1958. A.W. Phillips observed a negative relation between inflation and unemployment. •Two years later, Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow labeled this relation the Phillips curve, which became central to macroeconomic thinking and policy. Figure 8-1 Inflation versus Unemployment in USA, 1900– 1960 During 1900-1960 in the US: • a low unemployment rate was typically associated with a high inflation rate • and a high unemployment rate was typically associated with a low or negative inflation rate. Expected Inflation, and Unemployment •Wage determination: = , • Price determination: = 1+ •Assume: , = 1− +. Thus = (1+)(1− +) •,, are not indexed by :time invariant parameters • Define: − − −1 −1 = and = −1 −1 Algebra • With time subscripts the previous equation becomes = (1+)(1− +) • Divide both sides by Pt- 1: = (1+)(1− +)