Goldman Sachs|高盛全球观点:软着陆夏季.pdf

Goldman Sachs|高盛全球观点:软着陆夏季.pdf

  1. 1、本文档共9页,可阅读全部内容。
  2. 2、有哪些信誉好的足球投注网站(book118)网站文档一经付费(服务费),不意味着购买了该文档的版权,仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用,不得用于商业用途,未经授权,严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等,侵权必究。
  3. 3、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传,本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺!文档内容仅供研究参考,付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费,意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险,本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务;查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档,您可以点击 这里二次下载
  4. 4、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等,请点击“版权申诉”(推荐),也可以打举报电话:400-050-0827(电话支持时间:9:00-18:30)。
查看更多
4 September 2023 | 9:16PM EDT Global Views: Soft Landing Summer 1. The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@ estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our Goldman Sachs Co. LLC prior estimate and equal to the unconditional average recession probability of 15% calculated from the fact that a recession has occurred roughly once every seven years since WW2. Our estimate is far below the Bloomberg consensus, which remains stuck at 60%. (The less timely surveys conducted by the Wall Street Journal and Blue Chip Economic Indicators show slightly lower numbers.) We are also substantially more optimistic than most other forecasters in terms of our baseline GDP growth forecast, which averages 2% through the end of 2024. N C . M Exhibit 1: We Have Lowered Our 12-Month US Recession Probability Further to 15% O C . C B Percent US 12-Month Ahead Recession Probability Percent C I M. 100 GS Bloomberg Consensus 100 W April 2022: September 2023: Launched GS @ Tracking at 15% March 2023: Lowered to 15% on N 80 October 2022: Raised to 35% Continued Positive 80 E

文档评论(0)

偷得浮生半日闲 + 关注
实名认证
内容提供者

该用户很懒,什么也没介绍

1亿VIP精品文档

相关文档