2023.6-彼得森经济研究所-是什么导致了美国疫情时期的通货膨胀？-英-43页.pdfVIP

WORKING PAPER 23-4 What caused the US pandemic-era inflation? Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard June 2023 ABSTRACT We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple Ben Bernanke is Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Hutchins dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The Center on Fiscal and Monetary estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market Policy at the Brookings and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of Institution. US pandemic-era inflation and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns Olivier Blanchard is the C. that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for surge that began in 2021 was the result of shocks to prices given wages. These shocks International Economics. included sharp increases in commodity prices, reflecting strong aggregate demand, and sectoral price spikes, resulting from changes in the level and sectoral composition of demand together with constraints on sectoral supply. However, although tight labor markets have thus far not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that the effects of overheated labor markets on nominal wage growth and inflation are more persistent than the effects of p