数据创新中心：2024重新思考对人工智能能源使用的担忧报告（英文版）.pdf

RethinkingConcernsAbout

AI’sEnergyUse

ByDanielCastro|January29,2024

Concernsabouttheenergyusedbydigitaltechnologies

arenotnew.Nearthepeakofthedot-comboominthe

1990s,aForbesarticlelamented,“Somewherein

America,alumpofcoalisburnedeverytimeabookis

orderedonline.”1Theauthorsofthearticle,whichbecame

widelycitedinsubsequentyearsindebatesaboutenergy

policy,estimatedthat“halfoftheelectricgridwillbe

poweringthedigital-Interneteconomywithinthenext

decade.”2However,theestimatewaswrong,witherrorsin

bothitsfactsandmethodology.3Inhindsight,thereisno

longeranydispute,astheInternationalEnergyAgency

(IEA)estimatesthattoday’sdatacentersanddata

transmissionnetworks“eachaccountforabout1–1.5%of

globalelectricityuse.”4

Thismistakewasnotanisolatedevent.Numerousheadlineshave

appearedovertheyearspredictingthatthedigitaleconomy’senergy

footprintwillballoonoutofcontrol.5Forexample,asthestreamingwars

kickedoffin2019—withApple,Disney,HBO,andothersannouncingvideo

streamingsubscriptionservicestocompetewithNetflix,Amazon,and

YouTube—multiplemediaoutletsrepeatedclaimsfromaFrenchthinktank

that“theemissionsgeneratedbywatching30minutesofNetflixisthe

sameasdrivingalmost4miles.”6Butagain,theestimatewascompletely

wrong(itismorelikedrivingbetween10and100yards),resultingfroma

mixofflawedassumptionsandconversionerrors,whichthethinktank

eventuallycorrectedayearlater.7

Withtherecentsurgeininterestinartificialintelligence(AI),peopleare

onceagainraisingquestionsabouttheenergyuseofanemerging

technology.Inthiscase,criticsspeculatethattherapidadoptionofAI

CENTERFORDATAINNOVATION1

combinedwithanincreaseinthesizeofdeeplearningmodelswillleadto

amassiveincreasei