logistic模型在中国人口预测中的应用.docxVIP

logistic模型在中国人口预测中的应用

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Abstract：Thepopulationproblemisahottopicintodaysworld.Worldspopulationsoared,whichreducenaturalresourcespercapitaavailabilityprogressively.Thereforepopulationforecastisveryimportantforthefuture.Withthecontinuousdevelopmentofmathematicalmodelsandmodelsapplication,Applicationofmathematicalmodelinreallifebecomesmoreandmore,whoseworkisbecomingmoreandmoreimportantaswell.ByreasonthattherearemanyrestrictionsintheMalthusmodeltheclassicalpopulationmodel,thepredictionresultisnotveryaccurate.ThispapermainlyusestheLogisticmodeltoroughlypredictthepopulationofChinainthenextfewyears,andshowstheapplicationofmathematicalmodelintermsofpopulationinChinaatthesametime.Logisticmodelconsiderstheincreaseofpopulationsnaturalgrowth,naturalfactors,environmentalfactorsandotherfactorsinfluenceonthepopulation,andthepredictionresultsconformtothetrendofpopulationgrowthourcountry.ComparedwiththeMalthusmodelandtheGreyforecastingmodel,thepredictionresultsoftheLogisticmodelhaveahighfittingdegreeandisalsomoreaccurate.

Keywords:ChinaspopulationPopulationforecastLogisticmodel

Testofstatisticalsignificance

目录

第1章前言

1.1选题的背景和意义………………..…………5

1.2人口数量的可预测性………………….…..5

1.3人口预测模型的发展现状…………………..………..…5

第2章常用人口预测模型的简述

2.1Malthus模型7

GM(1,1)预测模型……….……7

2.3Leslis人口预测模型………….……….…..8

2.4Logistic人口预测模型…………….………….…………..8

第3章Logistic模型

3.1模型的建立………………………..……..……10

3.2模型中的参数估计………….….………….11

3.3模型的检验…………………….…….………..11

第4章Logistic模型在中国人口的预测应用

4.1数据的选取……………….……14

4.2模型的应用……………….……14

4.3模型检验以及结果分析………………