某银行的改革(英文版).pptx

China’sLastStepAcrosstheRiver:

CompletingthebankingreformAsiaPacificEconomicandMarketAnalysisSalomonSmithBarneyandCitibankandAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandManagementAustralianNationalUniversity1

Thelast-stepsThepastrelativelypain-freereformapproachisnolongerpossibleNewreformsfacetoughertasks:giantSOEspillarSOCBsWhyadjustmentsmaybepainful?non-statesectorsmallinthesesectorsfinancialproblemscouldtriggereconomy-widedifficultiesunemploymentpressure2

BankingreformhasmadeprogressesThecentralbank,PBOC,wasestablishedAcompletebankingsystemwasdeveloped4majorbanks(75%ofbankingassets)adozenothercommercialbanks3policybanksforeignbanksandbranchesproposed10privatebanksFinancialdeepening:M2/GDPratio(130%)Thebanksrelymainlyonhouseholddeposits(70%)andlendmainlytothestatesector(70%)3

Financialdeepening,M2/GDP(%)Note:Numbersfortheothereconomiesarefor1998.Source:ChinaStatisticalYearbook,variousyears;andInternationalFinancialStatistics,June2000issue.4

DeclininggrowthratesofhouseholddepositsSources:CEIC.5

ButbankfragilitygrewBankingproblemscausedbyLoss-makingSOEsPolicyloans(one-thirdoftotaloutstandingloans)WeakbankinginstitutionsNon-performingloansUnder-capitalizationofthebanks(comparingtotheotherAsianeconomies)6

Slowdecliningproductivitygrowth(%,p.a.)Source:SalomonSmithBarneyInc.estimatesapplyingenterprisesurveydatabytheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.7

SOEs’profitabilityfalling(%)Sources:StateStatisticsBureauofChina,ChinaStatisticalYearbook,variousyears,ChinaStatisticsPress,Beijing;anadCEIC.8

BankingfragilitySources:YipingHuang(forthcoming).China’sLastStepsCrossingtheRiver:Enterpriseandbankingreforms,CambridgeUniversityPress.9

…wereconfirmedbyfirmdata(%)Source:ProcessedfromenterprisesurveydatabytheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.10

Newmeasuresadopted