章宏观济政策学习目标金融建模chap026.pptx

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章宏观济政策学习目标金融建模chap026.pptx

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Chapter26MacroeconomicPolicy

LearningObjectivesAnalyzetheeffectsofanti-inflationarymonetarypolicyDiscussthepolicyoptionsavailabletotheFedinresponsetoanaggregatedemandshockDiscussthepolicyoptionsavailabletotheFedinresponsetoanaggregatesupplyshockExplaintherolesofcorerateofinflation,anchoredinflationaryexpectation,andcentralbankcredibilityinkeepinginflationlowDescribehowfiscalpolicycanaffectbothADandASWhyismacroeconomicpolicyasmuchartasscience

EnterPaulVolkerPresidentCarterappointedVolkerinAugust1979Volkerschallenge:stabilizetheeconomyandbringinflationdownOilpricesdoubledafterIranrevolutionSlowdowninproductivitygrowthCPIinflationwasover13%andincreasingVolkerplansshocktreatmentSharplyreducethegrowthofthemoneysupplyRealinterestrateswouldriseAggregatespendingwouldfallRecession,lostoutput,andlostjobswouldfollow

MonetaryPolicyv.Inflation:TheShortRunMonetarypolicycanbeusedtoreduceshort-runandlong-runinflationStartatpotentialoutput,Y1,and?1Increasetheinterestrate

ateachlevelofinflationShiftsADlefttoAD2Recessionarygapand

short-runequilibriumat

Y2,?2Cyclicalunemployment

occursLRASY1AD1Output(Y)Inflation(?)AS1?1AD2Y2?2

MonetaryPolicyv.Inflation:TheLongRunStartatshort-runequilibriumwitharecessionarygapatY2,and?2Actualinflation,?2,isbelowexpectedinflationof?1Expectedinflation

decreasesLowerexpectedinflation

shiftsAStoAS2EconomymovesdownAD2NewequilibriumatY1,?3Short-termpaingets

long-termgainLRASY1AD1Output(Y)Inflation(?)AS1AD2?1Y2?2?3AS2

USEconomy,1978-1985YearRealGDPGrowth(%)Unemploy-mentRate(%)InflationRate(%)InterestRate(%)NominalReal1978 5.5% 6.1% 7.6% 8.3% 0.7%1979 3.2 5.8 11.4 9.7 –1.71980 –0.2 7.1 13.5 11.6 –1.91981 2.5 7.6 10.3 14.4 4.11982 –2.0 9.7 6.2 12.9 6.71983 4.3 9.6 3.2 10.5 7.31984 7.3 7.5 4.3 11.9 7.61985 3.8 7.2 3.6 9.6 6.0

1980sIn

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