GWEC_GOWS - 2024海上风电大会.pptx

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2024-08-03 发布于广西
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GWEC_GOWS - 2024海上风电大会.pptx

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GOWS

1Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.Note:Analysisonlocationofvalue-add,notnationalityofproducer.Mining,refiningandproductionsplitforwinduseestimatedbasedonnationalcapacity,sourcingpolicyandtradepatterns,anddonotincludemajorChineseownershipinmajorminingmarketssuchasIndonesiaandChile.Manufacturingincludessub-suppliersfortowersandblades.AssemblyincludesOEMRD.Source:GWEC,IEA,BCGanalysisValueaddfromsupplyvariesbystep;EUandUSpunchingbelowtheirweightMiningTIManufacturing7%3%6%15%5%AssemblyRefining63%TotalROW S.America N.America Europe India ChinaShareofvaluegenerationinthewindsupplychain[%ofUSD2023]8%5%9%18%3%58%Shareofnewinstallations[GW]100%2023-25eGWavg.With63%,Chinaisnet-exporterbutnotdominant58%ofglobalvalueisChinaforChina3%ofvalueisnon-ChineseproducinginChina2%isChinafornon-China(mainlymanufacturing)FindingsLookingAheadRecommendations

2Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.WindimpactedadverseexternalandinternaldevelopmentsSource:BCGanalysisIncreasingmarketvolatilityIndustrydemandhasinpastbeenvolatile,drivenbyphaseinandphaseoutofsupportschemesVolatilityinducedbymacroeventssuchassupplychainbottlenecksthroughCOVIDandinflationandrawmaterialpricesdrivenbythewaronUkraineDeveloperscancelingprojectsdespitealreadysecuredfeed-intariffProductionovercapacityMarketvolumeinnumberofWTGshasdeclinedwhileadditionalproductioncapacityhasbeenbuilt,resultingin~30%overcapacityEmergingmarketsandlocalcontentrulesarestillincreasingthepressuretoexpandproductionfootprintMultiple-sourceprocurementpoliciesdriveredundantinvestmentsinthesupplychainCurseofrapidinnovationRaceforlargerWTGshasleftinsufficienttimeforthoroughtesting,resultinginserialdefectsinthefieldDevelopmentcostshasnotbeenrec