关键概念技能理解金融建模chap008.pptx

关键概念技能理解金融建模chap008.pptx

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McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright?2011bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

8-2KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstand:ThepaybackruleanditsingsAccountingratesofreturnandtheirproblemsTheinternalrateofreturnanditsstrengths andweaknessesThenetpresentvalueruleandwhyitisthe bestdecisioncriteriaThemodifiedinternalrateofreturnTheprofitabilityindexanditsrelationtoNPV

8-3ChapterOutline8.1 NetPresentValue8.2 ThePaybackRule8.3 TheAverageAccountingReturn8.4 TheInternalRateofReturn8.5 TheProfitabilityIndex8.6 ThePracticeofCapitalBudgeting

8-4CapitalBudgetingAnalysisofpotentialprojectsLong-termdecisionsLargeexpendituresDifficult/impossibletoreverseDeterminesfirm’sstrategicdirection

8-5Allcashflowsconsidered?TVMconsidered?Risk-adjusted?Abilitytorankprojects?Indicatesaddedvaluetothefirm?GoodDecisionCriteria

8-6NetPresentValue Howmuchvalueiscreatedfromundertakinganinvestment?Step1:Estimatetheexpectedfuturecash flows.Step2:Estimatetherequiredreturnforprojects ofthisrisklevel.Step3:Findthepresentvalueofthecashflows andsubtracttheinitialinvestmentto arriveattheNetPresentValue.

8-7NetPresentValue

SumofthePVsofallcashflowsInitialcostoftenisCF0andisanoutflow.NPV=∑nt=0CFt(1+R)tNPV=∑nt=1CFt(1+R)t-CF0NOTE:t=0

8-8NPV–DecisionRuleIfNPVispositive,accepttheprojectNPV0means:ProjectisexpectedtoaddvaluetothefirmWillincreasethewealthoftheownersNPVisadirectmeasureofhowwellthisprojectwillmeetthegoalofincreasingshareholderwealth.

8-9SampleProjectDataYouarelookingatanewprojectandhaveestimatedthefollowingcashflows,neteandbookvaluedata:Year0: CF=-165,000Year1: CF=63,120 NI=13,620Year2: CF=70,800 NI=3,300Year3: CF=91,080 NI=29,100Averagebookvalue=$72,000Yourrequiredreturnforassetsofthisriskis12%.Thisprojectwillbe

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