麦格劳-金融建模chap010.pptx

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麦格劳-金融建模chap010.pptx

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10-1Copyright?2011bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin

10-2KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstand:HowtocalculatethereturnonaninvestmentThehistoricalreturnsonvarioustypesofinvestmentsThehistoricalrisksonvarioustypesofinvestmentsTheimplicationsofmarketefficiency

10-3ChapterOutline10.1 Returns10.2 TheHistoricalRecord10.3 AverageReturns:TheFirstLesson10.4 TheVariabilityofReturns:The SecondLesson10.5 MoreonAverageReturns10.6 CapitalMarketEfficiency

10-4Risk–ReturnTradeoffTwokeylessonsfromcapitalmarkethistory:ThereisarewardforbearingriskThegreaterthepotentialreward,thegreatertherisk

10-5DollarPercentReturnsTotaldollarreturn=thereturnonaninvestmentmeasuredindollars$Return=Dividends+CapitalGainsCapitalGains=Pricereceived–PricepaidTotalpercentreturn=thereturnonaninvestmentmeasuredasapercentageoftheoriginalinvestment.%Return=$Return/$Invested

10-6PercentReturnDividendYieldCapitalGainsYield

10-7Example:CalculatingTotalDollar

andTotalPercentReturnsYouinvestinastockwithasharepriceof$25.Afteroneyear,thestockpricepershareis$35Eachsharepaida$2dividendWhatwasyourtotalreturn?DollarsPercentDividend$2.00$2/25=8%CapitalGain$35-$25=$10$10/25=40%TotalReturn$2+$10=$12$12/$25=48%

10-8Figure10.4U.S.FinancialMarkets

TheHistoricalRecord:1925-2008

10-9Year-to-YearTotalReturnsLarge-CompanyStockReturns

10-10Year-to-YearTotalReturnsLong-TermGovernmentBondReturns

10-11Year-to-YearTotalReturnsU.S.TreasuryBillReturns

10-12AverageReturns:TheFirstLesson

1926-2008InvestmentAverageReturnLargeStocks11.7%SmallStocks16.4%Long-termCorporateBonds6.2%Long-termGovernmentBonds6.1%U.S.TreasuryBills3.8%Inflation3.1%Table10.2

10-13HistoricalAverageReturnsHistoricalAverageReturn=simple,orarithmeticaverageUsingthedatainTable10.1:Sumthereturnsforpany