两次不同降水性质的天气过程对比分析.docxVIP

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两次不同降水性质的天气过程对比分析

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巩宪伟聂黎孙颖

摘要：该文利用常气象规观测资料，对2013年6月25日～7月2日月連续发生在四平地区的两次暴雨天气过程进行了对比分析，结果表明：两个过程降水性质不同，过程一以对流性降水为主，过程二以稳定性降水为主;过程一为暖区切变降水，形成了整层的不稳定层结，过程二为江淮气旋北上，不稳定能量较小;两个过程的水汽输送都以渤海为主，两次暴雨过程比湿都超过了10g/kg;两次过程的动力机制不同，过程一为低层动力触发不稳定能量释放，形成的垂直上升运动，过程二是以高空强辅散为主，形成的垂直上升运动;各家数值预报对对流性降水偏差较大，对大范围稳定性降水预报的量级以及稳定性上都表现较好。

关键词：暴雨??降水性质??水汽??动力机制?数值预报

：P412.25?：A???：1672-3791（2022）02（a）-0000-00Comparative?Analysis?of?Two?Weather?Processes?with?Different?Precipitation?Properties

Abstract：?Based?on?the?observation?data?of?normal?weather?gauge，?this?paper?makes?a?comparative?analysis?of?two?consecutive?rainstorm?weather?processes?in?Siping?area?from?June?25?to?July?2，?2013.?The?results?show?that?the?precipitation?properties?of?the?two?processes?are?different.?The?first?process?is?mainly?convective?precipitation?and?the?second?process?is?mainly?stable?precipitation;?The?first?process?is?shear?precipitation?in?the?;warm?region，?forming?a?whole?layer?of?unstable?stratification.?The?second?process?is?that?the?Jianghuai?cyclone?moves?northward?with?less?unstable?energy;?The?water?vapor?transport?of?the?two?processes?is?mainly?in?the?Bohai?Sea，?and?the?specific?humidity?of?the?two?rainstorms?exceeds?10g?/?kg;?The?dynamic?mechanisms?of?the?two?processes?are?different.?The?first?process?is?the?vertical?upward?movement?formed?by?the?unstable?energy?release?triggered?by?the?low-level?power，?and?the?second?process?is?the?vertical?upward?movement?formed?mainly?by?the?high-altitude?strong?auxiliary?dispersion;?Each?numerical?forecast?has?a?large?deviation?from?convective?precipitation，?and?performs?well?in?the?magnitude?and?stability?of?large-scale?stable?precipitation?forecast.

Key?Words：?Rainstorm;?Nature?of?precipitation;?Steam;?Dynamic?mechanism;?Numerical?prediction

四平市地處中高纬，属于温带半湿润季风气候。暴雨是四平市夏季常见的灾害性天气之一，且多出现在7月上旬至9月上旬，尤其以7月中旬至8月中旬最多。近年来，许多气象工作者对暴雨做了较为全面的分析[1]，研究表明：暴雨的发生与水汽的辐合、大气不稳定层结、位势不稳定释放机制和高低空急流及其耦合作用等密切相关，它们的不同配置和演变决定着暴雨过程的降水强度[2-4]。

随着对暴雨认识的提高，不少气象工作者对两次或多次暴雨过程进行了对比分析：杨利