世界银行-秘鲁的长期增长前景：利用全球绿色转型和成为高收入国家所需的改革（英）-2024.9.pdf

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rPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10900

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uLong-TermGrowthProspectsinPeru

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lLeveragingtheGlobalGreenTransitionandtheReforms

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PNeededtoBecomeaHigh-IncomeCountry

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APauloChávez

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uArthurMendes

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cStevenPennings

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DevelopmentResearchGroup

Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice

September2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10900

Abstract

ThispaperusestheWorldBankLong-TermGrowthModelof4.3percentinthesimulationperiod(2024–50),allow-

andextensionstostudyPeru’slong-termgrowthprospectsingPerutoreachhigh-incomestatusby2045.Thepaper

anditspotentialtoattainhigh-incomeeconomystatus.alsoconsidersaGlobalGreenTransitionscenario,where

Underabusiness-as-usualbaseline,Peru’spotentialGDPPerutakesadvantageofhigherglobaldemandforcopper

growthdeclinesslowlyfrom2.1to1.7percentoverthefromcleantechnologies.Inthatscenario,highercopper

nexttwodecades,duemostlytodemographicfactors.Inprices,greaterexploration,improvedminingtechnology,

thisbaseline,ittak