硅谷银行-2024年第三季度经济报告（英）-29正式版-WN8.doc

QuarterlyEconomic

Report3rdQuarter2024

SVBAssetManagementviewson

economicandmarketfactorsaffecting

globalmarketsandbusinesshealth

QCuliacrktetorlyedEictoMnaosmteicrtRitelepostrytlePublishedinQ32024|DataforQ22024

3Overview

4DomesticEconomy

10ForeignExchange

13CentralBanksandMonetaryPolicy

17CorporateBondMarket

21MarketsandPerformance

Overview

KeyTakeaways

TheFOMCmaintainsthefedfundsratefortheseventhconsecutivemeeting.

?TheFederalOpenMarketCommittee

(FOMC)continuedtoholdthefedfunds

ratesteadyatarangeof5.25%to

5.50%atitsJunemeeting.The

committeeupdateditsfed

fundsforecasttoone25-basis

point(bps)ratecutin2024.

AtitsJunemeeting,thecommitteereviseditsfedfundstargetexpectationsto5.1%from4.6%,implying

onlyoneratecutfor2024.

Thelabormarketshowsearlysignsofsoftening.

Theunemploymentrateincreasedfrom3.8%attheendofMarchto4.1%attheendofJune.These

statisticsarehigherthanayearearlier,whenthejoblessratewas3.6%.

Inflationhasbeenonthedecline.

?TheFOMCnoted“modest”progress

hasbeenmadetowardits2%inflation

objective.ChairmanJeromePowell

reinforcedthattheywouldliketosee

moredatatobeconfidentthata

declineininflationissustainable.

Corepersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE)—theFederalReserve’spreferredinflationindicator—

rose2.6%onayear-over-year(YoY)basis,whichisdownfrom4.2%inJune2023.

Loweryieldsareexpectedforcentralbanks.

Centralbanksexpectationspointtoloweryieldsinlate2024andinto2025,withtheexceptionofAsia

normalizinghigherovertime.

?WhilethelabormarketandGDPremain

solid,therehavebeenindicationsof

weakeningfromahistoricallystrong

position.

TheUSDslidesdownwardafterthefirsthalfof2024.

AstheFedprovidesclarityonitsmonetarypolicyandmarketspriceinratecutsin2024and2025,

narrowerinterestratedifferenti