旅途中的感悟（英）-12正式版-WN8.doc

Thoughts

FromtheRoad

CHINA|April2024

IrecentlytraveledtoChinatovisitwithCEOs,

policymakers,andKKRdealteams.Ialsospent

lotsoftimewithmyteammatesChangchun

Hua,whoservesasChiefEconomistforGreater

China,andAllenLiu.Seebelowforthedetails,

butourconclusionsfromthismostrecentvisit

areasfollows:

HenryH.McVey

HeadofGlobalMacro

AssetAllocation,

CIOKKRBalanceSheet

henry.mcvey@

1.China’seconomyhasbottomed.Thisvisitwasmyfourthinthepastfivequarters,but

thistimefeltdifferent.Easieryear-over-yearcomparisonscertainlyhelp,butsomeof

the‘scarringeffect’fromCOVIDisdissipatingtoo.That’sanimportantdevelopment.

Atthesametime,though,ourconversationswithlogisticscompanyexecutives

suggestedthattheU.S.consumerisrebounding,helpinglocalgoodsexportersaswell.

Finally,Chinaisnowalsobenefittingfromagreaternumberofcountriestransacting

ChangchunHua

ChiefEconomistfor

GreaterChina

changchun.hua@morefrequentlyinrenminbithesedaysversusbeforeCOVID.

2.Maybemoreimportantly,tradewithinAsia,whichweviewasamegatheme,

continuestogainmomentum.Alltold,AsiaisbecomingmoreAsiacentricastrade

withintheregionrises:In1990,just46%ofAsiantradetookplacewithinAsia,but

AllenLiu

allen.liu@

ThoughtsFromtheRoad|China|April20242

by2021,thatfigurehadreached58%.Weseethis

percentageincreasinganother10%overthecoming

years.Importantly,therearegrowingcountryrivalries

Exhibit1:AMisunderstoodEconomy:DigitalandGreen

TransformationShouldOffsetOngoingDragsFromReal

EstateIn2024

embeddedinthisgrowthforecast,but–todate–China

hasgainedsharenotonlythroughitscompetitiveChinaGDPBreakdown:2024

exports,butalsobycreatingamorelocalpresence

inkeymarketssuchasVietnam.Forglobalinvestors,

1.70.4

0.7

4.7

bothAsiainfrastructureandAsiaCredit(bothliquidand

-1.4

3.3

privatemarkets)a