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FundamentalLong-TermRisksAndtheNewFinancialOrderProf.RobertJ.ShillerYaleUniversity
FinancialModernizationFundamentalroleoffinancialinstitutionsManagerisksMaintainincentivesEffectivefinancialinstitutionsarefoundinallsuccessfuleconomiesInstitutionsmustcontinuallybeadaptedtotakeaccountofchangingnatureofrisks,newtechnology
China’sSpectacularModernizationSince1990EstablishedstockmarketIssuedsharestopublicEstablishedfuturesmarketsCreatedInsuranceindustryPersonalcredit/Mortgage
SpeculationHumanimpulsetowardsgambling,mustbedirectedtowardsconstructiveendsCapitalismisasetofrulesthatredirectsthehumangamblingurgeinconstructivedirectionsCapitalismisvulnerabletomarket-generatedinstabilities
China’sUncertaintiesWillthespectaculareconomicgrowthcontinue?Aslowwageadvantagegraduallydisappears,willbehardertosustaingrowthPossibledisruptionsofsmooth-functioningeconomicsystemcanslowgrowth.Growthof3%ayearvs.9%ayear:meansChinaoverallcatchesuptoadvancedcountriesin90yearsinsteadof30years
EconomicInequalityEconomicincentivesmustallowforsomechanceofsuccess—andoffailureSomeinequalityisnecessaryWorldwidetrendtowardsgreaterinequalityisseeninChinaaswellChina’sGinicoefficienthasrisenfrom0.33in1980to0.46in2000,notjustduetofarmers’incomes
ImportantReasonsforGrowingChineseInequalityTransitiontomarketeconomyinChinaisnotmakingeveryonesuccessfulatonceNewinformationtechnologyappearstotendtoconcentratewealth(inChinaandelsewhere)AssemblylineworkersTranslatorsChessplayers
Winner-Take-AllEffectofInformationTechnologyInformationtechnologyallowssearchtofindthebestproduct,andreplicationofthebestproductPhonographsandsingersTelevisionandactorsandathletesRapidaccelerationofinformationtechnologymaycreatethesameeffectinmanymoreoccupations
NorbertWieneronComputers,1948Computers
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