发电成本（2023~2024年） GenCost 2023‐24介绍.pdf

Australia’s

National

Science

Agency

GenCost

2023‐24

Final

report

Paul

Graham,

Jenny

Hayward

and

James

Foster

May

2024

Contents

Acknowledgements

vii

Executive

summary

viii

1

Introduction

14

1.1

Scope

of

the

GenCost

project

and

reporting

14

1.2

Feedback

received

from

the

consultation

15

1.3

Changes

made

in

response

to

feedback

16

2

Current

technology

costs

26

2.1

Current

cost

definition

26

2.2

Capital

cost

source

27

2.3

Current

generation

technology

capital

costs

28

2.4

Update

on

current

cost

of

nuclear

SMR

29

2.5

Estimating

large‐scale

nuclear

costs

31

2.6

Perceived

inconsistency

between

high

nuclear

capital

costs

and

low‐cost

nuclear

electricity

overseas

33

2.7

Timing

of

deployment

of

nuclear

in

Australia

33

2.8

Current

storage

technology

capital

costs

36

3

Scenario

narratives

and

data

assumptions

40

3.1

Scenario

narratives

40

4

Projection

results

42

4.1

Short

term

inflationary

pressures

42

4.2

Global

generation

mix

43

4.3

Changes

in

capital

cost

projections

45

5

Levelised

cost

of

electricity

analysis

64

5.1

Purpose

and

limitations

of

LCOE

64

5.2

LCOE

estimates

65

5.3

Storage

requirements

underpinning

variable

renewable

costs

75

Global

and

local

learning

model

78

Data

tables

81

Data

assumptions

94

Frequently

asked

ques