2023年高考英语真题题源解密(新高考卷)专题04 阅读理解D篇(说明文)(原题版).pdfVIP

专题04阅读理解D篇（说明文）

（新高考卷阅读理解篇）

2023·ID

OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathascome

tobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsome

cases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.

Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Some

peoplewilltendtooverestimate,andsometounderestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,

theycanceleachotherout,resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesame

errors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthat

people’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbecomecorrelatedordependent,the

accuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.

ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.The

keyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohavea

discussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependent

individuals.Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewas

significantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.

Inafollow-upstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroup

membersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Did

theyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasn’tthedominant

response.Mostfreque