概率论与数理统计lec01-PPT.pptxVIP

概率论与数理统计lec01

TextbookandReferencesTextbook:JayL.Devore,Probabilityandstatisticsforengineeringandthesciences(6thed.),机械工业出版社,ISBN7-111-15724-9.References:茆诗松、程依明、濮晓龙，《概率论与数理统计教程》，北京：高等教育出版社，2004，ISBN7-040-14365-2R.Johnson,MillerFreund’sProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,7thEd.PearsonEducation,2005,ISBN0-131-43745-6

影印改编版：章栋恩改编，《概率论与数理统计》（第7版），北京：电子工业出版社，2005，ISBN7-121-01931-0盛骤、谢式千、潘承毅，《概率论与数理统计》（第4版），北京：高等教育出版社，2008，ISBN7-040-23896-92

Whystudyprobabilityandstatistics?Theonlypurposefulimpactyouwillhaveonyourlifeandintheworldwillcomefromdecisionsyoumake.Whatmakesdecisionshard?Onethingthatmakesdecisionshardisuncertainty.3

Whystudyprobabilityandstatistics?Weareabletoexplicitlyincludeuncertaintyintodecisionmakingusingprobability.Whathappensifyouignoreuncertaintyindecisionmaking?4

Whatdowedowhenfacedwithuncertainty?Howdoyoudesignapolicyforclimatechange?Howdoyoudesignaculvertforfloodprevention?Planforthe“worstcase”?Planforthe“averagecase?”5

ExamplesPlanninganddesignofairportpavementThicker–lastslongerThicker–moreexpensiveRelationbetweenthicknessandlifeisuncertain.Therefore,thetotalcostoftheprojectisuncertain.6

ExamplesDesignofanoffshoredrillingtowerHowsafeissafeenough?Possibilityofhurricaneduringusefullife7

大家学习辛苦了，还是要坚持继续保持安静8

Designofanoff-shorewindturbinefatiguelifeisunknownmustdesigntotradeoffinitialcostswithlifetimeandreliability9

Whatisprobability?Uncertaintycanbeassessedordiscussedinformallyusinglanguagesuchas“itisunlikely”or“probably”.Probabilitymeasuresuncertaintyformally,quantitatively.Itisthemathematicallanguageofuncertainty.Itisremarkablethatasciencewhichbeganwiththeconsiderationofgamesofchanceshouldhavebecomethemostimportantobjectofhumanknowledge.——Pierre-SimonLaplace,ThéorieAnalytiquedesProbabilités,1812.10

Whatisstati