欧洲央行-货币政策与风险增长：制度质量的作用 Monetary policy and growth-at-risk the role of institutional quality.docx

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欧洲央行-货币政策与风险增长：制度质量的作用 Monetary policy and growth-at-risk the role of institutional quality.docx

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EUROPEANCENTRALBANK

EUROSYSTEM

LorenzEmter,AfonsoS.Moura,RalphSetzer,NicoZorell

WorkingPaperSeries

Monetarypolicyandgrowth-at-risk:theroleofinstitutionalquality

No2989

Disclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.

ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo29891

Abstract

Thispaperanalyseshowcountry-speci?cinstitutionalqualityshapestheimpactofmon-

etarypolicyondownsideriskstoGDPgrowthintheeuroarea.Usingidenti?edhigh-frequencyshocksinagrowth-at-riskframework,weshowthatmonetarypolicyhasahigherimpactondownsiderisksintheshorttermthaninthemediumterm.However,thisresultfortheeuroareaaveragehidessigni?cantheterogeneityacrosscountries.Ineconomieswithweakinstitutionalquality,medium-termgrowthrisksincreasesubstan-tiallyfollowingcontractionarymonetarypolicyshocks.Incontrast,theserisksremainrelativelystableincountrieswithhighinstitutionalquality.Thissuggeststhatimprove-mentsininstitutionalqualitycouldsigni?cantlyenhanceeuroareacountries’economicresilienceandsupportthesmoothtransmissionofmonetarypolicy.

Keywords:Euroarea,growth-at-risk,institutionalquality,monetarypolicytransmissionJELClassi?cation:C23,E52,F45,G28,O43

ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo29892

Non-technicalsummary

25yearsaftertheintroductionoftheeuro,theeuroareacountriesarestillheterogeneousintermsofeconomicstructures.Thisisparticularlyevidentinstandardindicatorsofinstitu-tionalquality,