重新评估新兴市场贷款的风险.docx

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重新评估新兴市场贷款的风险.docx

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nternatinaFinancecorporationFCIFC

nternatina

Financecorporation

ByFedericoGaliziaandSusanLund1

NewstatisticsfromtheGlobalEmerging MarketsRiskDatabaseConsortiumonaround15,000loanstoprivatecompaniesindeveloping economiesover30years,revealthattherisk ofinvestinginemergingmarketbusinessesislowerthancommonlyperceived.

OCTOBER2024

ReassessingRisk

inEmergingMarketLending:

InsightsfromGEMsConsortiumStatistics

Emergingmarketshavelongbeenviewedashigh-risk

destinationsforinvestment,particularlyinvestmentsin

companies.Althoughmacroeconomicandpoliticalstability

risksarehigher,thisperceptionalsoreflectsproject-levelrisks,oruncertaintyaboutrepaymentprospects.Investors,with

limitedhistoricaldataandalackofreliablemetricsonthelikelihoodofdefaultandrecoveryrates,approachemergingmarketswithgreatcaution.

Ourresearchchallengesthisview.NewlyreleasedstatisticsfromtheGlobalEmergingMarketsRiskDatabase(GEMs),

aconsortiumof26multilateraldevelopmentbanks(MDBs)anddevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs)poolingtheir

creditriskdata,providesawaytoanalyzetherisksinamorenuancedway.Thestatisticsofferinsightsintodefaultand

IFCResearchNote|1

IFCRESEARCHNOTEReassessingRiskinEmergingMarketLending|2

recoverypatternsforloanstoemergingmarketfirmsoverthepastthreedecades,especiallywheninvestmentsaremadealongsideMDBsandDFIs.Theyalsohighlightthebenefitsofincorporatingemergingmarketexposureintodiversifiedinvestmentportfolios.

DataCoverageandScope

TheGEMscreditriskstatisticsforprivatelending,publishedinOctober2024,areamongthemostcomprehensiveoftheirkind.2Spann