考虑腐蚀速率和不完全维护作用的管道剩余寿命预测-45cff18c.pdf

研究探讨

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-2206.2023.06.001

考虑腐蚀速率和不完全维护作用的管道剩余

寿命预测

胡俊平

中国石油华北油田公司第五采油厂，河北辛集052360

摘要：现有管道剩余寿命预测方法未考虑腐蚀速率和维护作用的影响，导致无法对非新的管道寿命进行准

确预测，给修复带来困扰。针对上述问题，在考虑内腐蚀速率物理模型的基础上，以残余壁厚为初始条件，

对管道实施分段非线性扩散建模，用于描述其实际退化过程，采用极大似然估计法和马尔科夫链-蒙特卡洛

方法进行参数估计，最终实现不同检测时间下概率密度函数的求解。结果显示，考虑机理作用下的腐蚀速率

回归模型相对误差范围为[0.21%，4.35%]，相关系数为0.9846，整体误差较小；与不考虑维护的方法、考

虑修复如新的方法及基于腐蚀速率的剩余寿命预测方法相对，该模型剩余寿命预测结果的相对误差范围为

[2.34%，5.75%]，累积误差为5.75%，结果可信度较高，避免了传统方法造成的过维修或欠维修现象。研

究结果可为制订管道检修作业计划提供实际参考。

关键词：腐蚀速率；不完全维护；管道；剩余寿命；非线性扩散

Predictionofpipelineremaininglifeconsideringcorrosionrateandincomplete

maintenance

HUJunping

No.5OilProductionPlantofHuabeiOilfieldCompany,CNPC,Xinji052360,China

Abstract：Theexistingmethodsforpredictingtheremaininglifeofpipelinesdonotconsidertheeffectsofcorrosionrateand

maintenance,whichleadstothefailuretoaccuratelypredictthelifeofrepairedpipelines.Tosolvetheaboveproblems,basedonthe

physicalmodelofinternalcorrosionrate,thispapertakestheresidualwallthicknessastheinitialconditionandcarriesoutapiecewise

nonlineardiffusionmodelingofthepipelinetodescribetheactualdegradationprocessofthepipeline.Themaximumlikelihood

estimationmethodandMarkovchain-MonteCarlomethodareusedtoestimatetheparameters,andfinally,theprobabilitydensity

functionwassolvedunderdifferentdetectiontimes.Theresultsshowthattherelativeerrorrangeoftheregressionmodelconsideringthe

corrosionratemechanismis[0.21%，4.35%];thecorrelationcoefficientis0.9846,andtheoverallerrorissmall.Comparedwiththe

methodfailingtoconsidermaintenanceorconsideringrepairandtheremaininglifepredictionmethodbasedoncorrosionrate,therelative

errorrangeoftheremaininglifepredictionresultsinthispaperis[2.34%，5.75%],andthecumulativeerroris5.75%.Theresultsare

highlyreliable,andthephenomenonofover-maintenanceorunder-maintenancecausedbythetraditionalmethodisavoided.The

researchresultscanprovideapracticalrefer