高盛-2025大宗商品展望 Commodity Views 2025 0utlook Stay Selective, Hedge the Tails.docx

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高盛-2025大宗商品展望 Commodity Views 2025 0utlook Stay Selective, Hedge the Tails.docx

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GoldmanCommodities

SachsResearch17November2024|4:30PMEST

CommodityViews

20250utlook:StaySelective,HedgetheTails

■TheunusuallywiderangeofpotentialUSpolicyshiftsin2025strengthensthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesinportfolios.Inparticular,longgoldandoil

positionscanactascriticalinflationandgeopoliticalhedgesintailscenarios,includingtariffescalation(gold),geopoliticaloilsupplydisruptions(oilandlikelygold),anddebtfears(gold).Wealsoidentifyalong-shortcommoditybaskettotrackandpotentiallyhedgetariffescalation.

Longgold.USpolicyuncertaintyandrecentconsolidationprovideanattractiveentrypointforourhigh-convictionlonggoldview,withstructuralsupportfromcentralbankgolddemandandcyclicalsupportfromFedcuts.Wekeepour

$3,000Dec25forecast.

Tradetheoiltails.OurbasecaseisthatBrentpricesstayina$70-85range,andthatoiloffersanattractiverollyield.Buttherisksofbreakingoutofthis

rangearegrowing.Intheshortterm,thenewadministrationfurtherraisestheriskstoIransupply.Themedium-termpricerisks,however,skewtothe

downsidebecauseofhighsparecapacityandbecausebroadtariffscouldhurtdemand

■Adelayedbearishcycleforglobalgas.Asforoil,ourfocusforglobalgas

pricesisonnear-termupsiderisks(e.g.acolderwinter)butmedium-term

downside.GivendelaysintheLNGsupplywave,wenowexpectEuropeanandAsiangaspriceswellbelowtheforwardsfrom2027(vs.2026expected

previously).

Baseoverferrous.Chinastimulusstrengthensourpreferenceforcopperandaluminumoverironoregiventheshiftfrompropertytogreenenergy.Whiletradetensionsposetwo-sidedriskstoex-Chinametalprices,potentialfurtherdollarappreciationposesnetdownsideriskstoourcopperpr