12月贸易数据点评：贸易顺差创历史新高.pptx

1、外需韧性叠加“抢出口”效应，出口反弹超预期2、政策显效及出口传导，进口同比转为正增3、“抢出口”支撑短期或有延续，外贸政策变动为关键请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远目录

资料来源：iFinD，太平洋证券中国12月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长10.7，市场预期增长7.3，前值增长6.7。中国12月进口同比增长1.0，市场预期下降1.5，前值下降3.9。中国12月贸易顺差1048.4亿美元，市场预期998.0亿美元，前值974.4亿美元。图表1：贸易数据主要分项（） 2024-122024-112024-102024-092024-082024-072024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022024-012023-12进出口差额（亿美元）出口总值进口总值1048.4974.4957.2816.7912.18.7850.67.0987.4816.17.42.1713.2574.0408.3836.8747.310.76.712.72.48.51.1-7.96.37.72.11.0-3.9-2.30.2 0.36.9-2.48.4-1.9-8.015.70.3出口商品：劳动密集型产品地产后链产品机电产品汽车(包括底盘)高新技术产品6.64.47.9-7.4-2.1 -2.8-0.1 0.3-9.1-1.51.5-23.2-15.5-8.825.432.41.8-2.45.20.28.4-6.6-0.11.56.210.011.56.212.17.913.73.011.910.07.5 7.50.3 0.9-6.712.1-7.73.925.732.713.8 12.616.628.8 28.452.027.945.04.36.49.1-1.19.111.56.38.13.1-2.7-1.42.8-9.2出口对象：东盟欧盟美国日本俄罗斯18.914.97.215.85.59.012.215.022.58.1-6.3-12.510.7-6.18.812.71.32.2-7.113.48.04.1-1.0-3.6-2.8-10.9-14.9-15.95.1-7.4-1.915.68.0 8.14.98.16.63.613.4-4.0-6.9-4.25.56.3 6.80.5-6.00.9-1.6-7.8-22.2-0.314.1-7.3-2.526.716.610.4-2.83.5-2.0-13.6-15.79.121.6进口商品：农产品机电产品高新技术产品大豆原油铁矿砂集成电路金额-12.1-15.1-4.93.3 3.4-5.2-14.3-0.2-13.5-5.8-17.2-6.9-10.0-0.96.7-1.72.44.99.88.613.014.715.218.19.112.611.515.11.62.24.20.312.82.48.85.54.41.48.12.0-34.1-19.2-22.533.038.859.0-11.2 -10.5-32.8-5.9-33.7-19.1-19.1-7.87.72.724.7数量-9.756.829.71.38.2-15.018.0-6.9金额-13.3-4.7-24.9-10.7-4.27.90.2-1.914.1-3.5 -4.5-12.88.4数量-1.114.3-8.7-14.5-0.6-7.0-9.4-3.1-10.8-8.75.5-6.20.6-9.213.5金额-11.6-19.6-8.010.82.8-4.05.7 7.548.629.122.1数量11.5-0.94.52.9-4.710.014.92.26.112.60.52.011.03.9 4.6金额9.613.03.710.311.0 11.1-0.117.315.8-3.48.5-10.0数量12.614.416.914.516.39.415.220.25.8 6.00.62.0进口对象：东盟欧盟美国日本韩国5.4-3.0-7.34.25.011.1-4.86.15.3-3.9-7.8-20.6-22.7-17.8-5.313.7-2.3-4.9-6.6 -6.1-3.5-5.37.124.1-6.8 -6.82.5-7.31.40.42.6-11.26.6 6.712.2-1.7-7.89.33.9-14.3-4.4-6.16.3-2.50.814.5-7.1-1.312.2-4.9-10.61.6-8.59.721.61.819.77.12.621.06.318.8 18.48.40.7请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远

1、外需韧性叠加“抢出口”效应，出口反弹超预期图表2：出