2024年第四季度宏观经济分析报告.pptx

Exportremainsstrong,focusingon

domesticdemandinfuture

Abstract

InOctoberandNovember2024,productionandexportgrowthrateperformedbetter.IncrementalmacropoliciesinlateSeptember2024,improvedconsumptionandrealestatetosomeextent.GDPgrowthrateinthefourthquarterof2024isexpectedtobe5.0%,andGDPgrowthratein2024isexpectedtobe4.9%,whichshowsthattheeconomicgrowthtargetofaround5%isexpectedtobeaccomplishedin2024.

ChinasGDPgrowthrateisexpectedtobe4.7%in2025,withgrowthrateof4.9%,4.8%,4.6%,and4.6%inthefourquartersrespectively,showingatrendoffirsthighandthenlow.

Therearethreemainlinesinthefourthquarterof2024:1.Duetotheimpactoftheold-for-newpolicyandtheyear-endpromotionsofcarcompanies,carproduction,investment,andretailsalesindicatorsperformwell.2.Withfavorablepolicies,realestate-relatedcommercialhousingsales,landpurchases,medium-andlong-termresidentialloans,homeapplianceretail,furnitureretailandhomedecorationretailindicatorshaveimproved.3.UnitedStateshassteppedupitseffortstosuppressthedevelopmentofhigh-endchipsinChina,whichhashadanegativeimpactonChina’sproductionandinvestmentrelatedtoelectronicequipment.

Thecurrenteconomyfacesproblemssuchastherushforexportseffectissignificantlyweakerthanin2018,thesustainabilityoftheautomobileindustrysprosperityisindoubt,anddomesticdemandisstillinfluencedbyrealestate.Itisrecommendedthatthegovernment:prepareinadvancetocopewithincreasedexternalshocks,vigorouslydevelopsecond-handautomobilemarketandautomobilefinance,andacceleratethereformoflocalgovernment’sfiscalandtaxationsystems.

一、GDP：生产和出口较强，预计2024年经济增速为4.9%

四季度国内外经济形势出现以下变化：一是特朗普赢得美国大选，料将深刻改变当前的全球经贸和政治格局。一方面，美国对中国的贸易制裁将加码，美国对中国加征关税的路径还不明朗，直接影响中国经济