2025年中国经济展望分析报告-培训课件.pdfVIP

中信期货国际化研究|CITICFuturesInternationalResearch2025-01-20

2025年中国经济年度展望

ChinaEconomicAnnualOutlookin2025

摘要Abstract

In2025,Chinamacroeconomicfocusisexpectedtoshiftfromfiscaldebtresolutiontothe

improvementofpricesignals.Large-scalefiscalleveragingfordebtresolutionwillhelpalleviatethe

burdenonlocalgovernmentsandenterprises,graduallyreleasingdevelopmentpotential.

Creditdataisexpectedtoreboundinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Theexpectationofinventory

reductionsuggeststhathousingpricesarelikelytostabilize.Astherealestatemarketrecoversinthe

secondhalfoftheyear,withimprovementsinemploymentandincomeexpectations,market

confidencewillfurtherstabilize,andpricesareexpectedtorise,improvingthedeflationarysituation.

Duetolimitedmarginaladditionaldemandforcommoditiesdrivenbyinvestmentandtherisk

ofdecliningexports,theextentoftheinflationreboundmaybelimitedintheshortterm.Asteady

recoveryfromdeflationwillstillrequirecontinuouspolicysupportinthefutureandanexpansionof

incrementalstimulusspaceforconsumption.

2025年中国宏观经济主线预计将从财政化债向价格信号改善过渡。国内财政加杠杆大规模化债，

帮助地方政府和企业减轻负担并逐渐释放发展能力，上半年信贷数据有望反弹。库存去化预期指引明

年房价大概率企稳，下半年随着房地产市场修复，就业和收入预期改善，市场信心进一步企稳，物价

有望回升，通缩局面改善。由于投资拉动商品边际新增需求有限、出口面临回落风险，通胀反弹的幅

度短期可能相对有限，稳健走出通缩还需未来政策持续支持并扩大对消费的增量刺激空间。

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相关人员为客户。Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness.Theopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreference

onlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFutu