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bruegel -德拉吉的艰难处境:欧盟委员会的竞争力指南针 Draghi on a shoestring - the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass.docx

bruegel -德拉吉的艰难处境:欧盟委员会的竞争力指南针 Draghi on a shoestring - the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass.docx

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ANALYSIS03February2025

Draghionashoestring:theEuropeanCommission’s

CompetitivenessCompass

TheproposedEUCompetitivenessCompasswouldsetupacon?ictbetweenindustrialpolicyandthesinglemarket

JerominZettelmeyer

InSeptember2024,formerItalianprimeministerandEuropeanCentralBankgovernorMarioDraghideliveredamajorreporttotheEuropeanCommissioncontaininga

diagnosisoftheEuropeanUnion’scompetitivenessproblems(Draghi,20241).The

reportsetoutthreebigideas:(1)abigpush,coordinatedacrossmemberstates,to

improvetheEU’sbusinessenvironment;(2)anexpansive,centrally-steeredindustrialpolicytopromotecleantech,ensureminimumindustrialcapacityinsecurity-sensitivesectorsandsubsidisethedecarbonisationofenergy-intensiveindustry;(3)alarge,

centrally-fundedpublic-investmentpush,particularlyinenergyanddigitalinfrastructure.

Thisvisionisradicalinthreeways.First,itrequiresexceptionalcooperationand

coordinationacrossEUcountries.Second,itviolatesfree-tradeorthodoxy.FollowingtheexampleoftheUSInflationReductionAct,Draghimadeapitchforsubsidiesbased

onlocalcontent(whichareillegalunderWorldTradeOrganisationrules).Third,itpromisestobeveryexpensive.Evenassumingabigroleforprivatelyfinanced

investment,ideas2and3willcostalotofpublicmoney,whichDraghiwantstobecomeavailableattheEUlevel,includingthroughcommonborrowing.

TheEuropeanCommission’sinitialanswer2toDraghi’sradicalandpotentiallydivisivevisionappearedtobe:yes,butwithsignificantcaveats.GrabbeandZettelmeyer(2025)

analysedthisresponseindetail,andalsoansweredthequestionofwhetherthe

Commission’spolicyplatformisstrongenoughtodealwithPresidentTrump(answer:notquite).

Bruegelanalysis

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