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TheGlobalCondomLandscapePerspectivesonthecontextofcondomprogramminginashiftingenvironmentGlobalCommunityofPractice,IASJuly2024
2SettingtheStageEpidemiologyTransmissionDynamics
Althoughincidenceacrosssub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)continuestorapidlydecline…itisnotontracktomeet2025and2030targets.11UNAIDSEpidemiologicalestimates.2023.2Assumingactiveprogramsmaintaincurrenttreatmentandpreventioncontinue:DatapresentedattheHIVModellingConsortium,MIHPSAPhase1,UNAIDSTechnicalConsultation,20-21July2023.SlidesthroughJeffreyImai-EatonIncidenceisexpectedtodecline…butthepaceofdeclinewillslowin2025aswe:CloseinonsaturationofARTandviralsuppressionbasedonsuccessesofthepastdecade.BenefitfromdecreasingHIVprevalenceandcorrespondingdecreasingviremia.NewHIVinfections,global,1990-2022and2025target13Modellingindicatesincidencewilldecline,butataslowerrate-presentingchallengesforpreventionmovingforwardGoalsASM(Age-StructuredModel):AcloserlookatSouthAfrica
ClusteringofHIVtransmissionsinEuropecomparedwithdiffuseclusterscharacterizingtransmissioninZambia1ZambiaBroadlydiffusetransmissionclustersEurope1JeffreyImai-Eaton[2023].HIVNewProductPlanningIntroductionandHIVDeliveryAfrica-basedgranteeconvening30November2023;HIVepidemiologytrends:Wherearewe?Whereareweheaded?”,citingAbeler-D?rneretal(2019).inpreparation4SmallandDiffuseHIVTransmissionNetworksinEasternandSouthernAfricaResultinanEpidemicof“ManyWhoInfectFew”
IncreasinglyChallengingtoIdentifyPopulationsatHighRiskofContractingHSV-2andHIV11JeffreyImai-Eaton[2023].HIVNewProductPlanningIntroductionandHIVDeliveryAfrica-basedgranteeconvening30November2023;HIVepidemiologytrends:Wherearewe?Whereareweheaded?,citingLouisaRMoorhouseDevelopmentofanHIVrisk-differentiationtoolforuseinroutineHIVte
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